Will Iran Survive If Democrats Won 2020 Elections?

Mohammad S. Alzou’bi

Mohammad S. Alzou’bi, Fellow at the International Institute for Iranian Studies.

MohammadAlzo3by


Since 2016, the world has witnessed a vast change of policies in many areas and aspects, where alliances and adversaries have consequently changed. The Middle East area exclusively has passed a mad wave of various policies that reflect the global conflicts between the major powers, including the United States, Russia, the European Union countries, and China.
The conflict of interest skyrocketed, core strategic plans of the global powers have floated to the surface, confrontations become apparent in the region, and reach all levels starting from internal Arab conflicts to regional and in result global ones.
The US and Russian current approaches
The new compass of US alliance in the Middle East requires direct dealing and practice favoritism towards Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, where every country of those has its interests and policy towards the other. However, they all gather on one target, which is Iran who threatens every inch of their borders after being a key player in crucial Arab countries such as Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and most importantly Iraq.
By contrast, Russia’s alliances are exceptionally different, despite the relations that can be described as good with US-allied countries, but Russia seems to be more in line with Iran, the Syrian regime and other illicit systems that role the instability processes in the region. Thus, the United States and Russia have taken the Middle East as an arena of rivalry on interests and influence.
Iran’s current situation is severe
Nowadays, the Israeli-Iranian contest considered the main one in the region; naturally, the enemy of Israel is the enemy of the United States and is against the new wave of its alliances. So, Iran has exposed to a high dose of pressures began with the withdrawal of Trump Administration from the JCPOA, which was a sign of disabling any Iranian diplomatic future effort. And, ended with a new age of severe sanctions that also isolated it from its allies around the globe, while its hopes demolished after the discouraging EU positions towards the case.
The US new policies towards isolating Iran had proven successful, where the Iranian strategic thought has declined to how to make the internal political system survive this situation. That is, of course, will help in the process of re-stabling the region once again, while every Middle Eastern country will care about its own business without intervention of any foreign country. Iran should go with the wave to maintain its stability and satisfying its people. It should also reconsider itself as a regional and international actor according to international norms, not the ideological thought. A though which through Iran is trying to show the people of the region that its conflict with Israel is a religious one while the Iranian political system is approaching such an agenda to gain approvals in order to expand its strategic patch of influence and fulfill the desire to domain the Islamic world.
Iran considers democrats as a chance in 2020
As the United States is getting closer to the 2020 presidential elections, Democrats are severely seeking to control the White House soon. In turn, the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) is looking at this opportunity to restore the Obama golden era, and the government in Iran is looking forward eagerly to a new democratic administration.
From their side, re-entry into JCPOA is becoming a litmus test for Democrats in the face of Trump Administration. On the contrary to all recommendations, Iran is trying to retain its position in the state of standby to re-engage with the international community. Moreover, with further daring to achieve its regional agendas with more likely for Democrats to reach some mutual consensus between Israel and Iran to avoid any obstacles in front of its policies in the Middle East and satisfy AIPAC.
Israel’s may win with Trump or without him
Israel is the opposite image of Iran, and for sure seeks to first, get involved in the region more than being a name in the peace treaties, it wants to engage with the countries of the region on all aspects. Israel then wants to get influence in the neighboring countries, which seen impossible despite all current and future agendas.
Whether the upcoming president will be democratic or republican, Israel will be the biggest winner, where if Trump, he will continue the status quo as it is.
Although new democratic administration will re-compass all alliances in the region, which may be seen against the Israeli interests, the situation, will be eventually for its good. Moreover, it is not inconceivable to see Iran lying on the Israeli hand as an ally controlling the Strait of Hormuz with the US endorsement.

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