The ongoing protests, in Africa and Middle East countries, became a common ground for the external implementation of political and information technologies. Including, above all, the external impact on the population through international mass media and information technologies, created specifically for this purpose propaganda blogs that effectively encouraged young people to conduct destructive actions in North African and Middle Eastern countries.1 However, the protests that have passed in the United States are caused more by internal political problems.
The reason for these protests was caused, first of all, by the recent financial crisis.
In the past protests in the countries of North Africa, the Middle East, similar methods of social engineering, designed by Western think tanks, have been applied to introduce so-called “democratic” standards that are unacceptable to countries with their own established values and values.
Also, the protests in the regions, are aimed at blocking geopolitical configurations and breaking down regional bloc associations and organizations that run counter to external world actors, as this affects their “national interests.”
Moreover, these destructive insurgencies mainly occur in rich raw material and energy producing countries, where the provocation of internal escalations leads the country to political and economic instability. This, in turn, gives rise to external actors to strengthen their influence through the introduction first of private military companies, and then of their Western transnational corporations.
Protests organized in these regions have far-reaching consequences. Americans have the right to limit the influence of China and Russia in these energy regions. Since both countries are concentrated in these regions is a huge business. So the PRC plans to invest more than 70 billion in infrastructure to sub-Saharan Africa.2
More than half of China’s investment went to the development of infrastructure in Africa, for the development of hydroelectric power stations and railway projects.
According to the data, the volume of trade between Africa and China has reached more than 114 billion dollars. And China’s investment in Africa by 2015 will reach $ 570 billion.
Thus, the results of the protests in these regions were purposefully modeled to increase political and economic risks by the presence of Chinese and Russian companies. This led to the loss of a number of oil contracts for Russia in Libya and a number of Arab countries. Also, in Libya, reduced the work of 75 Chinese companies, the total loss of their companies in Libya was $ 20 billion.3
In general, these protests led to geo-economic losses in the region for China and Russia. Also, protests in Syria will lead to geostrategic losses and negative consequences, primarily for Russia.
The currently ongoing protest is not new in its strategy; only tactics and methods have changed, in connection with the informatization of society. Rebellion occurs, mainly in regions that have important geopolitical and geostrategic importance. Also, the state that will manage in these regions, therefore, will influence the world political process.
The peculiarity of these protests in the regions varies in different ways, due to the consideration of various factors, such as geographical, religious, and sociocultural. For the population of the countries of the Middle East and African countries, its politicization is typical. Thus, further exacerbating the situation, this grows into a severe and uncontrolled conflict. In this connection, in these regions, insurgencies were provoked by NGOs, who in their training introduced the development of special political programs and reinforced the appeals of religious leaders in the participation of government. However, in the CIS, in many cases, an important role is played by the socio-economic factor. Thus, the putsch was modeled by ideologists based on geographical factors, which affects the behavior of the local population.
In this connection, the creation of an unstable Middle Eastern arc will advance towards the Russian-Chinese borders. And in the medium term, the ideologists of “revolutions” are expected to model a mutiny in Pakistan.
First of all, for such destructive actions, the state should react promptly with regard to instigators and leaders of insurgencies, since civilians are exposed to danger in most cases, which requires protection. It is also necessary to objectively reflect events in local media, and in parallel create independent information centers in the regions. That, in turn, will prevent distortion of information, usually interpreted by external media centers.
There is no need to change the system drastically, it will be more effective to modernize it, while simultaneously increasing political literacy and education among the young part of the population.
For each region, there is a difference in the plan for the insurgency, and therefore, the methods of external actors will be different. The countries of Africa and the Middle East are characterized by resistance to a narrow group of local elites. For Europe, there will be a growing phenomenon about the discontent of the disadvantaged social group, for lobbying their interests.
Basically, they will be on the wave of the financial crisis, when many promising professions have not been left behind, after the crisis. That is, developed countries are expected to develop unrest “rejected.” So, in this case, the very meaning of the term “political struggle” will become archaic. In this connection, the flash mob of the action and social networks will acquire global significance, where a higher level of access to information resources.
Earlier, before the beginning of 2000, such protests were designed with the participation of military institutions, mainly experts on “counterinsurgency movements.” In recent years, the military has cooperated with civilian think tanks, where they jointly suggest the use of technical innovations to the breaks of the mentality of the population, to involve them in protest movements. In the future, intensive involvement of non-traditional actors in the form of non-governmental organizations, transnational corporations, in the struggle for spheres of influence in strategic regions, through the use of “network” shares, is also expected.
That is, there will be the development of “digital” protest forms.
In general, the role of the national factor will be significant in opposing the development of the globalization process. And when in the countries of Africa and the Middle East they will understand about the mistakes that he made, with regard to the breakdown of the previously stable regime. In the medium term, the “crowd” will again go, and there will be a repetition of events, in which case the national factor will serve as a unifying factor. Since these countries are inferior in information technology, external players will take control of the situation in their own hands to change the system that is inconvenient to them.
However, in the medium term, the role of the national factor in the information struggle will not be uniform due to different perceptions, technological development in the regions,
and a decrease in trust in networks. However, one way or another, the development of “network information” protests is actualized. In place, this will be as a new type of struggle in the form of «virtual wars.” In which there will no longer be the need to involve mass, and the emphasis will be on developing mobile “cyber” groups.
Also, the problem of counteraction will be that there will not be any definite leaders or permanent headquarters.
In order to effectively counter new types of threats as a protest movement, it is first of all necessary for countries to maintain socio-economic stability and enhance their cultural potential.
In case if the armed conflict escalates, the situation will become unpredictable. It is necessary to expect retaliatory strikes by the Iranian Al Quds groups and various cells of militants organizations sponsored by Iran over US military facilities and their allies in different regions of the world. This will also lead to the consolidation of Iranian society, thereby concentrating efforts on accelerating the development of the nuclear program. With a military solution to the problem, Iran immediately blocks the Strait of Hormuz, blocking the West’s access to oil from Arab countries, destroying tankers using anti-ship missiles “Nur” and mines, and striking the oil-bearing areas of the bay. In this case, events will acquire a large-scale regional conflict.
When trying to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, serious consequences may occur for the environmental situation in neighboring regions of the world.
With the peaceful outcome of the crisis, Iran will maintain the current regime, and Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries will have to reckon with Iran’s demands and leadership.
The escalating protest movements in Iran are beneficial to Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Nigeria. Russia will receive short-term dividends from rising oil prices and an increase in exports to Europe. However, for Russia as a whole, the armed conflict in the Middle East will have negative consequences, in the context of the loss of allies and influence, as well as multibillion-dollar contracts for armaments.
Sanctions will strengthen the position of the Chinese. Chinese processors expect to receive significant discounts on contracts for Iranian oil, as other importers will reduce oil purchases, in order to avoid sanctions from the US and Europe, for violation of the ban.
At the same time, the US will bear the costs of providing air and sea security in the Strait of Hormuz. The daily transit of crude oil through the strait is 17 million barrels per day, accounting for 20% of global supplies.4
However, even with the peaceful outcome of the crisis, the US and Israel will not abandon their plans. Americans will try to strengthen the opposition in these two geostrategic regions.
1. Anup Shah Last Updated Thursday, May 12, 2011. Middle East and North Africa Unrest.
2. By Claire Groden December 4, 2015. China To Invest Billions in African Development.
3. By Steven Sotloff March 14, 2012. China’s Libya Problem.
4. Jeremy Bender. Apr. 1, 2015. These 8 narrow chokepoints are critical to the world’s oil trade.
By Oybek Makhmudov, political analyst (Uzbekistan)